Equity markets have performed strongly over the past year on the back of an improving outlook for the major economies. Global growth continues to show positive signs confirming the debt deflation cycle is rolling over to a more traditional industrial cycle. Global PMI data is pointing to the first synchronised global growth cycle seen in many years. However, geopolitical risks will continue to weigh on the market. Despite these risks, currently all measures of volatility are surprisingly low. These geopolitical factors and central bank policy dynamics will continue to provide challenges to investment market performance and economic optimism.
The prospects for the Australian share market and economy are improving. Low interest rates, improvements in commodity prices and continued economic growth will benefit domestic companies.
The Australian market has seen quite a large rotation away from defensive and bond proxies towards the cyclicals and value end. Our view is that this correction still has some way to go, given the extent of the bubble, and should be driven by rising global inflation, and therefore earnings growth in the more economically-sensitive sectors. Recent comments from both the US Federal Reserve and European Central Bank suggest they are on a path of reducing their balance sheet. This is likely to put further upward pressure on bond yields.
The current market PE ratio appears around fair value, based on the average of the past 20 years of low inflation, but it has not moved with earnings upgrades. It appears we have entered into an earnings expansion phase that could last many years. The typical earnings expansion results in rising markets and falling PE ratios. Under-earning and undervalued stocks typically do well in the early stages of such a recovery.
